Joe Spagnolo: Will Roger Cook pull the pin before 2029 election?

Will he or won’t he? In political circles — both Labor and Liberal — the question of whether Roger Cook will pull the pin before the 2029 election continues to be asked. Up until now, Cook has answered questions about his leadership plans in the way you would expect. When I sat with him in his office in December last year in a pre-election interview, he scoffed at suggestions he would not do a full term as premier if he won the March poll. “I’m just getting started,” Cook said. “I’ve only been in the job for 18 months.” And in August this year, when I spoke to him about his 60th birthday milestone, he again scoffed at suggestions he would retire from politics at the 2029 poll. “Are my ideas still fresh, are my energies still high? Yes, they are,” Cook said. “I will keep doing it (being premier) while that’s the case.” When I pointed out that he’d be nearly 64 at the next election, he also scoffed at any suggestion he’d be too old to commit to a further four years as Premier. “If you look back over history, in relation to premiers we’ve had, the 60s were when a lot of them were just building their careers,” he said. “So, from that perspective, I don’t see my current situation (turning 60) is reflecting anything on how long I’m going to be doing this.” Clearly annoyed that I was fixated on his future retirement plans, Cook asked me during one of our interviews: “So when are you retiring?” Fast forward to this week, where, at a Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA lunch in Perth, the media again asked him whether he would lead Labor to the 2029 election. This is how Cook answered: “That’s a question for a range of people. My caucus will make some decisions about these things, as will the people of Western Australia.” Hardly a definitive yes. His reply to questions about his leadership this week had some of his Labor colleagues scratching their heads, wondering why Cook would not have answered “yes”. I can tell you that leading up to this week, several of Cook’s Labor colleagues were already privately speculating the Kwinana MP might call it quits before 2029. I have it on good authority that zempilas.com.au is already preparing for the possibility his opponent in 2029 will be either Rita Saffioti or Amber-Jade Sanderson — both who desperately want to be numero uno. The Liberals have already tried to stir the pot when it comes to the real possibility of a leadership stoush between Saffioti and Sanderson, possibly in 2028. WA politics’ No1. shit-stirrer, Nationals MP Lachlan Hunter, loves nothing more than referring to Sanderson during question time in Parliament as “the Premier in waiting”, knowing Saffioti would hate that. Saffioti and Sanderson will go head-to-head for the premiership if Cook pulls the pin (think Game of Thrones). For mine, I expect Cook won’t contest the 2029 election and will retire from politics. He has been a Labor MP for 17 years, during which time he has held significant portfolios, been deputy leader and now Premier. After replacing McGowan as premier in 2023, Cook won this year’s election in a landslide and has now become an elected leader. But the physical and mental toll of being a political leader is significant. By the time 2029 comes around, Cook would have been Premier for six years — the same number McGowan was at before pulling the pin. If Cook goes to the election as Premier, he would need to commit to doing another full term. There is no way Cook will do another eight years as Premier. Interesting times ahead for Labor and WA politics.